{"id":9008,"date":"2022-09-26T19:21:25","date_gmt":"2022-09-26T19:21:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/affinityhrgroup.com\/?p=9008"},"modified":"2023-11-27T20:21:08","modified_gmt":"2023-11-27T20:21:08","slug":"labor-market-overview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theworkplaceadvisors.com\/labor-market-overview\/","title":{"rendered":"Labor Market Overview"},"content":{"rendered":"
The following labor market summary was prepared by Susan Pale, Vice President of Compensation.<\/em><\/p>\n Where has 2023 gone? It\u2019s a question I keep asking myself, and I\u2019m guessing many of you are asking the same thing. It seems we were just ushering in a new year. But a lot has happened \u2013 inflation rates are going down, fuel prices are $1.00 less than this time last year in many places, and grocery prices dipped in March for the first time since 2020. That\u2019s all good news, right? At the same time, tech, media, finance, and, most recently, retail organizations have announced layoffs of thousands of workers. That\u2019s bad news, right? And the economy has added an average of 341,000 jobs every month during the last 12-month period. We\u2019ll talk more about all this later in this report, but the 2023 labor market has economists, business leaders, and a lot of others scratching their heads.<\/span><\/p>\n AI burst into our lives in 2023, and now we can\u2019t help but hear about it every day. There\u2019s way too much information to even begin to incorporate here, but my Affinity HR Group friend and colleague, Paige McAllister, has written a great, informative article titled <\/span>The AI Revolution: Impacts on Workplaces and HR<\/span><\/i>. Be sure to check it out at <\/span>https:\/\/affinityhrgroup.com\/the-ai-revolution-impacts-on-workplaces-hr\/<\/span><\/a>. The only other thing I am going to say about AI is that the content of this report was not created with the assistance of generative AI.<\/span><\/p>\n Recruitment and Unemployment<\/strong><\/p>\n On July 6, the United States Department of Labor (USDOL) issued its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS report) for May 2023.\u00a0 There is a ton of information in this report, but some of the information below may help to explain why the labor market continues to be strong.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n During this 5-month period, the largest decreases in job openings occurred in the healthcare, finance and insurance, and other services sectors.<\/span><\/p>\n The US also added 209,000 new jobs in June 2023. While this is a more modest number than in the past few months, it remains significantly high, as does the unemployment rate, which remains quite low at 3.6%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n As always, unemployment varies significantly by geographic area. Right now, the areas with the lowest unemployment rate (under 1.5%) are all located in Vermont and New Hampshire. And, not so unusually, El Centro, California tops the list with a 16.0% unemployment rate.<\/span><\/p>\n We\u2019ve all been hearing about layoffs in the last several months. Some of the numbers are big, but it\u2019s important to understand the context. A lot of organizations really ramped up hiring during COVID and post-COVID and are now shedding some of those hires. For example, Microsoft announced it would lay off 10,000 employees earlier this year. That sounds like a huge number, but Microsoft hired almost 60,000 employees during the last three years. So they still end up with 50,000 more employees than three years ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n HR Brew reported back in May that several states, in an attempt to address labor shortages, have passed legislation to allow minors to work later and longer hours. In Ohio, the 7 p.m. work limit will be eliminated for children aged 14 and 15 during the school year, and in Iowa children aged 16 and 17 will be allowed to serve alcohol with a parent\u2019s permission. All this comes at the same time as the USDOL is reporting that child labor law violations have increased 69% since 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n What employers need to do<\/strong><\/p>\n Wage Growth<\/strong><\/p>\n The USDOL reports that wages for all positions increased by +4.3% during the 12-month period ending in May 2023. This increase was slightly lower than projected. This slowdown in wage growth, coupled with a continued strong labor market, most likely has contributed to lower inflation rates and lowered the risk of a recession later in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n In April, the Economic Research Institute updated its salary increase projections for 2023 to 3.79% and salary structure increases to 2.91%.\u00a0 These projections are slightly higher than the 3.5% salary increase and 2.7% salary structure projections made back in January. Similarly, the Conference Board projects salary increases of 4.3% across industries for 2023, and the Society for Human Resource Management projects salary increases of 4.6%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n It’s early in the year for 2024 wage growth projections – the large compensation consulting firms generally release their next-year compensation forecasts in the fall. But it is likely that wage growth will be significant in high-demand occupations such as healthcare practitioners and healthcare support personnel.<\/span><\/p>\n The staffing firm Robert Half reports that employees who changed jobs in 2022 experienced higher wage growth than those who remained in their positions. That suggests that there is still a very competitive recruiting market for some positions and that many organizations, often smaller businesses, continue to struggle to recruit top talent.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n What employers need to do<\/strong><\/p>\n Minimum Wage<\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s mid-year, so there aren\u2019t as many changes to minimum wage as typically occur on January 1, but there is quite a bit of activity.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Currently 19 states index minimum wage changes to cost of living increases. Expect more states to adopt these types of indexed changes in the absence of any federal minimum wage legislation.<\/span><\/p>\n Employees working remotely are generally subject to minimum wage statutes in the state or municipality where they work. Traveling remote employees (e. g. living and working in an RV) and those who move from one location to another present an additional challenge. There isn\u2019t a lot of legislation\u00a0<\/span>governing these situations, but don\u2019t hesitate to reach out to us at Affinity HR Group should you need assistance with this subject.<\/span><\/p>\n What Employers need to do<\/strong><\/p>\n Legislative Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n Earlier this year Marty Walsh left his position as Secretary of Labor to become Executive Director for the NHL Players Association. I\u2019ve only included this information because it is evidence that career paths sometimes take pretty interesting turns. His successor, Julie Su, is likely to continue to address priorities recommended by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). These include taking steps to address increasing workplace violence against healthcare workers, enhancing unemployment insurance, and reviewing and assessing response to the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n In February, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) ruled that employers may not offer severance agreements that require employees to waive their labor law rights. The decision means that employers who offer severance agreements to furloughed employees can\u2019t include prohibitions against making statements against the employer or disclosing the terms of the agreement as part of the agreement itself. The Board determined that requiring employees to give up their rights to benefits violates the National Labor Relations Act.<\/span><\/p>\n In January, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued a proposed ruling to ban the use of noncompete clauses. The agency says that such a ban would be beneficial to both employees, who are now prevented from seeking other job opportunities, and employers, who can\u2019t recruit and hire employees bound by noncompete clauses. A final ruling is expected in 2024. Organizations will have 180 days to comply with the final ruling.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n
\n Category<\/b><\/td>\n Number as of 5\/31\/2023<\/b><\/td>\n Number as of 12\/31\/2022<\/b><\/td>\n 5 Month Change<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Job Openings<\/span><\/td>\n 9.8 million<\/span><\/td>\n 10.8 million<\/span><\/td>\n -1,000,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Hires<\/span><\/td>\n 6.2 million<\/span><\/td>\n 6.4 million<\/span><\/td>\n -200,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Separations<\/span><\/td>\n 5.9 million<\/span><\/td>\n 5.9 million<\/span><\/td>\n Unchanged<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n
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